Predictions for Week 4

Ravens         35          410          2
Browns        14          350          3
Ravens usually dominate the Browns.  Big game by Rice should be expected, and Ravens D.
For the Browns a heavy dose of Richardson and if they get behind Little could get garbage pts as well as Weeden.

Falcons      33          400          0
Panthers     14          255          3
Falcons should take this. Expect all Falcons position players to do well.  Especially Turner who should get the 2nd half to run the clock.
Expect a better game from Cam this week.  Should get plenty of garbage time points with Smith, LaFell and Olsen. Stewart could have a good week if Cam gets heavy pressure.

Patriots     31         415          1
Bills         19         270           3
Patriots should start to get things clicking after 2 straight losses.  Whole offense should be involved.  Brady, Gronk, Lloyd, Ridley, Welker...
Fitzpatrick usually does well vs Pats even in loss.  Choice could make a nice desperate grab at RB, but I wouldn't expect too much.

Lions      31          440        1
Vikings  16          230        1
Lions should play well at home.  Look for more of the same from last week with Megatron and LeShore.
Vikings should have a hangover after a big win last week.  Harvin and AP should continue to have strong seasons.  Especially AP!

Texans   45         480         0
Titans      0          160         2
Expect a big showing from Foster, Tate, and AJ this week.  Schaub should also be a solid start. A lot of  TDs to go around.
Titans won't have much worth starting this week.  Look somewhere else for starters.

Chargers   33      375        0
Chiefs       10      310        2
I expect the Chargers to give Mathews a chance to shine here and I think he succeeds.  I think Rivers will be worth a start as well.  Floyd or Meachem will be worth a start although I can pinpoint which.
Cassel could be in for garbage points if your desperate at QB with Bowe being the main receiver. Charles should be serviceable.

49ers     35     475         1
Jets        20     250         1
Look for Moss and Davis to have decent games here with Alex Smith attacking the secondary.  Gore probably won't be a huge factor.
I expect Powell to start taking more carries to continue from last week.  I wouldn't be surprised if you see a bit more Tebow this week.  I suspect Tebow will be part of 1 of the TDs.

Seahawks   30       410     2
Rams          17       300     2
Expect the Seahawks to come out strong after the "win" from last week.  They will feel disrespected and may come out with stronger sack totals.  On offense look for more from Tate and Lynch with Rice as well.  Wilson could be a nice sleeper.
Bradford hasn't been getting great protection all year.  I don't expect that to change here.  Quick passes to Amendola is their best bet to competing. Jackson should also have a big role although I'm not convinced that will equate to fantasy points.

Cardinals  24        280      0
Dolphins   21       440      3
Cardinals D should cause a lot of turnovers.  I think Wells will get a red zone TD as well and Fitz should have a decent role.
Tannehill should have a high yardage day, but likely a lot of turnovers.  Look for Hartline at WR.  Lamar Miller should get the majority of the carries Bush or not.  Look for Bush to play a lot more WR when he plays.

Broncos   37       350     0
Raiders    13       360     1
Look for Manning and the receivers to have a field day. Decker, Thomas, and McGahee.
Palmer could get some garbage time, but McFadden should really be the focus of the offense.

Jaguars    30     340      1
Bengals   23     390      1
Look for Gabbert to do well and Blackmon to possibly breakout.  MJD of course should have a big role.
Bengals should have a decent attack. BJGE and AJ Green playing the bigger roles.  They will just come up short.

Packers    40    490     1
Saints       14    220     3
Packers will come out hot.  Expect ARod to come out blazing with Jennings, Jordy, and Finley all getting some action.  Benson could get some garbage closer time.
Brees could have a big yardage game, but I expect he'll be giving the ball away a bit too.

Redskins   27     460    1
Bucs          24     240   3
I expect the Redskins to get a win. RG3 will have a decent game, but I think it'll be Davis that really shows up.
Bucs will be in it so I'm expecting a balanced attack with Martin and Jackson doing the majority of the work.

Eagles    27    460     3
Giants     21   300     2
More turnovers for the Eagles, but they somehow manage to win.  McCoy will be the main guy.  I'm not sure Vick is the guy behind the win though.
Brown should be the main reason Giants are in this.  Eagles match up fairly well to the WRs here.  I could see Eli as a bust this week.

Bears          26       260     1
Cowboys    19       390    3
Cutler and Marshall have a good history vs Dallas.  I expect that to continue.
Romo will have that costly INT this game, or at least that's what the projection numbers lead me to believe.  Will likely still have a decent game though.

All numbers came from a projection script.  PTS    YDS     TO
Enjoy the games and good luck!

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the results for this week from the predictions script.

Team          PTS        YDS        TO
Panthers       19           420          2
Giants          14           210          0

Bears           40            490          2
Rams           14            240          3

Browns       38            235          2
Bills            17            485          5

Jaguars        35            405          0
Colts            21            360          4

Cowboys     19            420          2
Bucs            14            210          0

Jets              48            375           0
Dolphins     10             320           6

49ers           26            375           0
Vikings       24            350           1

Saints          40            336           2
Chiefs         28             459          2

Lions          35            480           2
Titans         13            200           1

Redskins    50             500          0
Bengals      10             285          4

Cardinals    20             170         3
Eagles        14              415        4

Falcons      27              360         0
Chargers    21              315         2

Texans      24               310         0
Broncos    20               300         3

Raiders     24            355            1
Steelers     19             240           0

Ravens     33            360           1
Patriots     20            360           1

Seahawks  24          330           1
Packers      19          275           2

Strange results...
We'll see.

Week 2 Predictions

I've written a little program that attempts to make NFL Game predictions.
Thought I'd share them here....  These are computer generated predictions and not my personal opinion.
For gamblers it's usually around 64% correct against the spread the last 3 or 4 years.

Team           PTS     YDS     TO
Bears            40        430        0
Packers         17        310        4

Bills              34        380        2
Chiefs           36        390        2

Panthers        27        420        1
Saints            21        270        2

Bengals         9          420        4
Browns         36        290        1

Colts              17        330        4
Vikings          37        430        0

Jaguars           13        300        4
Texans           33        390         0

Dolphins         14        240        3
Raiders            24       360        0

Patriots            30       350        1
Cardinals         10       240        3

Giants              13       260        2
Bucs                21       380        0

Eagles              9         420        4
Ravens             36       290        1

Rams                27       230        2
Redskins           35       520        2

Seahawks         14        220        2
Cowboys          23        380        2

Steelers              17        330        3
Jets                     40        370        0

Chargers             37        330        0
Titans                   7         290        2

49ers                    28       280         0
Lions                    23       410         3

Falcons                30        310         0
Broncos               26        380         3

What do you think?

Getting ready for Week 2.

What we learned from week 1 is that expectations are not always what they are cracked up to be.  So week 2 you must be cautious of what was real and what was surreal.  I'm going to list a few players at each position and state my opinion on if they were real (believe it's repeatable) or surreal (don't think it's more the exception than the rule)

QB
Matt Ryan - Real - excellent schedule all season to do well
Mark Sanchez - Surreal - great performance, but how much was it made by defense?
Peyton Manning - Real - Best regular season QB.
Matthew Stafford - Surreal - He's better than that. Although week 2 has rough match up too.

RB
CJ Spiller - Real - Think he's a bonafide RB1 while Fred Jackson is out
Alfred Morris - Surreal - Don't trust Mike Shanahan with my RB situation at all...
Shaun Draughn - Surreal - Crowded backfield not sure how/why he got the carries he did.
Trent Richardson - Surreal - very talented player should breakout.  Nice buy low option right now.
Isaac Redman - Real - Will have a rough time with Dwyer emerging and Mendenhall coming back.

WR
Randall Cobb - Real - Even when Jennings comes back it's obvious Packers have role for him
Kevin Ogletree - Both - I think it will depend on how the defenses are defending Bryant and Austin
Lance Moore - Real - A Drew Brees under the radar favorite
Cecil Shorts - Surreal - Not trusting Jags offense just yet
Stephen Hill - Surreal - Looks good, but rookie WR success is a rarity.

TE
Dennis Pitta - Surreal - Think he's a talent, but not sure how often he'll be targeted like this.
Coby Fleener - Real - Think he'll be security blanket for Luck for a long time


Got questions?
Comment away or hit me up on twitter @cjperk77

Season Predictions

I figured that I'll make my stab in the dark at predicting the season.  I'll make my prediction a bit shorter and sweeter than most. I'm predicting that the Falcons defeat the Steelers.

The Falcons have one of the easiest schedules of the season and a very talented team.  That should insure them home field through the playoffs.  This is how they will get through the other difficult teams in the NFC.

The Steelers have a much harder battle, but I believe they've added the depth needed to make their way.  From what I can tell the biggest competitors are the Patriots and the Ravens.  I think regression and current injuries hurt those teams enough to prevent them from getting through the playoffs.

The NFC South should be won by the Falcons fairly easily with the Saints taking on the interesting experiment  of a season without a coach.  The Bucs and Panthers should both improve, but probably won't threaten the Falcons.  I wouldn't be surprised if Saints end up 3rd or even 4th in the division this year with all the obstacles they are trying to overcome.

The AFC North should be won by the Steelers with the Bengals and Ravens fighting for 2nd.  Bengals may pull off 2nd in the division.  Ravens will have troubles on defense without Suggs and Johnson.  Browns are on the way up, but will have a rough season of learning this year.

The AFC East belongs to the Patriots.  They should have no trouble winning the division.  Bills should move into 2nd in the division with the Jets in disarray.  The Dolphins have been in a rebuilding phase for a while and they still seem to have a bit of work to do.

The NFC East is rough to predict.  The easiest thing to predict is the Redskins finishing 4th.  After that I think injuries will play a large role in who wins and loses.  Talent wise I'd put the Eagles in 1st, but Vick won't play every game and timing will be critical.  Giants winning the Super Bowl last year showed that they can beat anyone.  I have them finishing 2nd.  Dallas has a mess on the O-line which is why I have them 3rd.

The AFC South should be won bye the Texans, but don't be fooled.  This division is tougher than it looks.  Titans are a very good team and the Jaguars and Colts will have a few impressive games this year with their inconsistent youth.

The NFC North is a very talented division.  Much like the NFC East the easiest team to predict is the Vikings finishing last. After that the Lions, Packers, and Bear (Oh My!) are difficult to tell.  Packers are the most obvious choice for 1st place, but the Lions and Bears seem more well rounded.  The Lions are an explosive team with a great offense and good defense.  I put the Lions in 2nd and the Bears in 3rd because the Bears seem most susceptible to injuries.

The AFC West is as much in the air as any division.  The Chargers would seem to have the inside track  on the division with the most talent (in my opinion).  The Broncos should come in 2nd if Peyton comes into his own early enough.  The Chiefs should finish 3rd and the Raiders 4th.

The NFC West has an obvious winner with the 49ers, but after that it's a bit muddled.  The Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams all have their share of young talent, but haven't been able to put things together for a season.  I think the Seahawks have the most to work with, followed by the Cardinals, then the Rams.

Sitters who should start and staters that should sit

Sitters who should start:

QB Sam Bradford - Owned in only 23% of leagues Bradford surely isn't starting for anyone this week.  However, This week vs the Lions should be a shootout.

RB Robert Turbin - Owned in only 15% of leagues Turbin is a reach at best.  Back spasms for Lynch loom and could mean significant time for this rookie.
   
RB Evan Royster - 41% of leagues he's owned, but here is the curse of the Shanahan week 1.  He should be a good start for week 1.

WR Danny Amendola - To go with Bradford Danny Amendola should be catching most of the passes probably worthy of a start this week.
   
WR Doug Baldwin - Should be getting a lions share of receptions vs the Cardinals.

TE Heath Miller - Should be Ben's TE in the Red Zone.

K Steven Hauschka - Seattle should score plenty of points vs the Cardinals and Hauschka should benefit greatly.

DEF Vikings - Playing Jacksonville offers plenty of sack/turnover/TD possibilities

Starters who should sit

QB Peyton Manning - First game back vs Steelers is a rough draw.

RB Marshawn Lynch - back spasms are scaring me away from Lynch week 1.

RB Willis McGahee - Playing Steelers bad match up.

WR Stevie Johnson - On Revis island this week.

WR DeSean Jackson -  Browns secondary much better than appears.

TE Jacob Tamme - Manning struggle plus strong D will be rough game for Tamme.

K Rob Bironas - Pats will hold Titans to few points.

DEF Ravens - Ravens playing good offense to begin year.