Sunday, August 19, 2012

Gems after round 7

Just finished making my lists for my fantasy draft next week.  In doing so I think I've uncovered a few great picks that could be made after round 8.

Without further delay here are the picks.

QB
Matt Flynn ADP Rounds 14-18
You may be asking why Flynn? He was a backup last year and was very impressive.  In fact his situation this year is somewhat similar to what Aaron Rodgers went through prior to taking over for Brett Favre.  The exception (hence risk) is that he's changed teams.  The weapons at his disposal are better than you think, and he's got a favorable schedule.  I think the potential here is to finish as a worthy QB1. (more than 8 teams)

Jake Locker ADP Rounds 13-17
Let me preface this as Locker is definitely a reserve pick.  Mostly due to a brutal schedule, however, I really like him as a backup due the same reason.  His schedule during a playoff run is very favorable.  He'd be an ideal backup for quite a few QB1 picks.  Rivers, Peyton Manning, Mike Vick, and Matt Ryan  most notably.  He should end up on the edge of QB1 scoring territory.

Andy Dalton ADP Rounds 10-11
I have Andy Dalton right on the edge of being a QB1 in most formats.  Better yet, not only should he be improving, but most of his weapons should be progressing as well.  One thing to be careful of is his playoff schedule is brutal.  Although in my opinion quarterback by commitee (QBBC) with Locker would put you in decent shape.

RB
Let me preface all of the RB picks with this.  RB is very thin and these are more looking at breakout potential.
Jonathan Dwyer ADP Rounds 16-20
The Pittsburgh Steelers backfield is somewhat open.  Dwyer last year showed big play ability and with Mendenhall having issues getting on the field.  I expect Dwyer to get some share of the carries based on what he did last season.

Lamar Miller ADP Rounds 16-19
Miller is a rookie and you may ask what about Bush and Thomas.  First I'll answer the Thomas question with a question.  If Miami had confidence in Thomas why did they spend a decent round pick on Miller (who was rated much higher than he was taken)?  I think he was taken to fullfil the role for Bush if Bush gets injured (who has yet to play a full season).  This makes him a very nice sleeper.

Cedric Benson ADP Rounds 8-13
Benson is a vet who has had a decent amount of problems and was picked up by the Packers.  Worst case scenario I believe is he'll get goal line carries.  Potentially many TDs with the Packers.  Best case he'll be getting a lion's share of carries with Starks getting 3rd down. Either way I think you've got a nice pick for the price considering the ceiling and the floor.

WR
Sidney Rice ADP Rounds 9-12
Sidney Rice has had a rough run after a breakout season in Minnesota.  He should be the main target for the Seahawks and played well in limited action last year.  Obviously the reason he's being taken this low is injury risk, but should well be worth the pick this late.

Laurent Robinson ADP Rounds 11-14
In later rounds you can find some late round finds on some teams you don't expect to succeed.  That's exactly what we have here.  Robinson had a breakout as the 3rd WR in Dallas, and now should be #1 possession receiving option in Jacksonville.  He should have the most targets and should be a great red-zone threat.

Mohamed Sanu ADP Rounds 18-20
The Bengals are looking to fill the 2nd WR slot next to AJ Green. Sanu appears poised to fill that role, and has shown a ton of potential to this point in preseason.

TE
Coby Fleener ADP Rounds 10-11
Fleener is a rookie like Sanu.  Unlike Sanu he's already used to his Colt's QB Andrew Luck.  Fleener very well could be a favorite target in the Colt's retooled offense.

Jared Cook ADP Rounds 8-11
Cook is one of a few nice weapons in the Titan's arsenal.  I suspect he could supply some big plays in the passing game while Kenny Britt is out.  When Britt comes back it should just open up the middle of the field more for Cook to do damage.

Tony Moeaki ADP Rounds 17-20
Moeaki missed last season with an injury.  It was obvious that without Charles and Moeaki defenses could concentrate on defending the hashes and out.  With both back and the addition of Peyton Hillis the Chiefs' offense looks very powerful.  Moeaki has potential to score TE1 points at a TE2 price.

All kickers and defenses should be taken after this point so I won't bother listing them.
If you want opinions in real time follow me on twitter. @cjperk77

Thanks

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